As we close in on the final round of BKT URC action, the boys are still in contention for a knockout spot. With so many final table permutations on the cards, we thought we’d break down exactly what needs to happen for Ospreys to qualify.
We’re the last game of the round, so we’ll know ahead of kick off what’s needed.
Here's the URC table as it stands coming into Judgement Day:
And an actual image from Ospreys Head Office as we worked this out...
The easy TO UNDERSTAND part:
OSREYS vs CARDIFF at CARDIFF CITY STADIUM, WALES (Saturday 1st June, 17:30 KO)
We need a five-point win. Four tries. Bonus point. Hapus.
This is essential and takes us to two crucial numbers: 50 points and 10 wins. If we can't secure 5 points then we don't progress to the knockouts, even if the below results go our way. If we get the points in the bag, then this is what we need from the other teams.
And just so we’re all clear, league placement is calculated by:
- League points
- Total number of wins
- Points difference
The less easy to understand part:
Leinster vs Connacht at the RDS Arena, Dublin (Friday May 31st, 19:35 KO)
In this fixture Connacht can win, but cannot pick up a bonus point. Anything more than 4 points would put them on 50 points and 10 wins, where they would pip us to the 8th spot due to points difference (unless we win by 42 more points than they do – still with us?!)
As long as Connacht do not secure a bonus point win, we’re still in contention.
DHL Stormers vs Emirates Lions at the DHL Stadium, Cape Town (Saturday 1st June, 12:45 KO)
Emirates Lions must lose this fixture. Lions are currently on 49 points, so we need them not to go above 50, or that pushes us out of contention.
They can however, lose and secure a singular point (either a losing bonus or try bonus point.) This would take them to 50 points, but as they would have only won 9 games in the 23/24 season, we would go ahead of them by beating Cardiff with a bonus point and finishing on 10 wins.
Benetton vs Edinburgh at Stadio Monigo, Treviso (Saturday 1st June, 13:00 KO)
In this fixture, both team are currently on 49 points and so we need a winner. There can't be a draw as it would take both teams to 51 points, making our hypothetical 50 point finish too little too late.
An outright winner, on 53 or 54 points, would proceed.
If the loser doesn’t get a bonus point and finishes on 49 points (and the results above have gone our way!) then Ospreys will finish in 8th place on 50 points and 10 wins. If the loser gets two bonus points and finishes on 51 points, we’re out.
But, if either team gets a single losing bonus point to reach 50 points, then it’s a bit more complicated…
If Edinburgh lose with a bonus point, they’d match our 50 points but trump us on total wins (11 vs 10), so would therefore take the 8th spot and knock us out.
If Benetton lose but get a bonus point, we’d be drawn on 50 points and would both have 10 wins. It would therefore come down to points difference, which is currently tight! Ospreys sit at -39 and Benetton on -14. If points difference finished as is then they’d pip us to 8th place, but there are still two games of rugby to be played…
If Benetton’s bonus point is from four tries scored, it would be a tough ask for us to overcome that deficit, even after scoring at least four tries of our own against Cardiff to reach 50 points. But, if we manage that and Benetton’s bonus point comes from losing by less than 7 in a tight, low-scoring game… who knows!
Simple, right?
There’s a whole round of frantic maths ahead, but the most important thing is a big performance from Toby and the boys. The best thing you can do is leave your calculator at home and get down to the Cardiff City Stadium to cheer them on against Cardiff at Judgement Day.
You’re our 16th man, and your Ospreys team need your support to help cheer them over the line.
There’s something at stake, and we need you with us.
